A Lesson on Inferences

John is fond of saying, “The contract is often won or lost at trick one.” The ARCH acronym stands for: Analyze the lead; Review the auction; Count your winners (NT contract) and losers (suit contact) and ask yourself, How can I make this hand?

Here is a very interesting hand I recently played on Bridge Base Online. There are some great lessons here – in the bidding, as well as the play of the hand.

Sitting South, I was dealt this hand:

 A K 6 5 3
 A K 5
 A Q 9 6
 8

The bidding went as follows:

(The opponents passed at every opportunity.)

Me: 1 Partner: 1NT
Me: 3 Partner: 3NT

Kudos to my P for bidding 3NT without a heart stopper in this case. With my bidding (strong jump shift1) my partner can determine that I must have points in hearts, so a heart stopper was not a problem.

Here is the full deal:


North
J
864
J753
AK654
West
102
QJ107
K1042
J107
East
Q9874
932
8
Q932
South
AK653
AK5
AQ96
8


The opening lead was 2. Looking at dummy, it appears there are eight sure tricks (two spades, two hearts, two clubs, and two diamonds, once K is knocked out.) One more trick has to be generated. If either of the black suits splits 4-3, that will generate the 9th trick. The question is, which black suit should you attack?

The answer is obvious when you apply the “A” in “ARCH.” The opening lead (which, by all rights, must be fourth best) implies that the clubs will break 4-3. Therefore, the 9th trick can be generated by setting up the 5th club. In order to do that, declarer must duck the first club, and take the second club with K. Next, play A and a small club to clear the club suit, setting up 4 for the 9th trick.

In order to get to the good 4, declarer must eliminate K, setting up J as an entry to the good club. Therefore, once you get back in the lead cash A followed by Q, and if necessary, a third small diamond.

Here’s what actually happened.

My partner correctly ducked the initial club lead, and took the next club trick with A, pitching 5 on dummy. However, he did not set up the clubs. Instead, he worked on the diamonds by leading J. (The proper way to take the finesse is to lead little to Q, since declarer is missing 10.) This was won by K in the west hand. West led back a , which declarer took with his K. At that point, he lead a little to set up his last to no avail, since there could be no way back to his hand to cash the winning 5th . Result: down 1.

Notes

1. A jump shift by opener is unconditionally forcing to game.